by AW Siddiqui
An article ‘Is Jammu and Kashmir underdeveloped as stated by Amit Shah?’ published in The Hindu on August 07, 2019, provides a very different picture than the one portrayed by the Indian Home Minister;
- In 2016-17, Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) had per capita net State GDP of Rs 62,145. Goa was the top-ranked State (Rs 3,08,823) while Bihar (Rs 25,950) was the lowest ranked State.
- J&K stood eighth in terms of poverty rate (10.35)%. Goa had the lowest poverty rate of 5.09%, while Chhattisgarh had the highest poverty rate of 39.93%. The national average was 21.92%.
- Jammu and Kashmir ranked third out of 22 States in terms of life expectancy. The former State had an average life expectancy of 73.5 between 2012-16. Kerala had the highest life expectancy of 75.1, while Uttar Pradesh had the lowest (64.8). The national average was 68.7.
- In 2017, Jammu and Kashmir’s Human Development Index (HDI) was 0.68, higher than even States like Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat. Kerala had the highest HDI (0.77) while Bihar had the least (0.57).
Looking at the overall picture; J&K is above the average mark when compared to the other states, and far ahead when compared with ‘Hindi belt’ states. Their economy is generally localised, and does not need intervention by the Central government, considering the needs of the poorer states like UP and Bihar.
Looking demographically, Jammu and Kashmir region can be divided into three areas. The bigger North-West Kashmir region - predominantly a Muslim inhabited area, the North-East Ladakh region – with Buddhist majority, and the relatively smaller southern Jammu region with a bigger Hindu population.
Though Article 370 and 35A applies to the whole region, the core focus of the BJP government has been the turbulent Kashmir region.
Due to the failures of BJP and previous governments, majority of the population living in this region do not want to be part of India anymore. They either want to be independent, or join Pakistan, which already occupies about a quarter of the J&K land mass, and has managed its inhabitants significantly better than India.
BJP’s overt reason for abrogating Article 370 and 35A, among many, is to improve the economic situation of the state. But the proclaimed intentions, and the manner it is implemented, is being questioned by economists and the think tanks, in and outside of India.
Prabhat Patnaik, in his article published in GANASHAKTI, refutes the economic justification of the BJP government’s move to end Kashmir’s special status;
"Amit Shah in his speech in the Rajya Sabha brought in the question of Kashmir’s “development”, arguing that closer integration with the rest of India will bring in much investment into the region. He especially appealed to the youth of Kashmir, promising that they would have larger employment opportunities.
When unemployment in India has never been as bad as now in the last 45 years, to claim that closer integration with India will improve Kashmir’s employment prospects, is ironical. But let us look at the argument closely.
Special status or no special status, the idea that large-scale industry, unrelated to processing any local raw materials, will flow into Kashmir is ridiculous in the extreme (though Shah did mention large-scale industry). The transport costs associated with locating a plant in Kashmir will be prohibitive; and with the repeal of Article 35A that restricts land purchase by “outsiders”, the land cost will soar, a point mentioned by Shah himself as a prospective “positive development”. So, the idea of somebody locating footloose large-scale industry in the Kashmir valley is just absurd. And much the same holds for footloose small-scale industry.
The only activities that can flourish in the valley, therefore, are those which use local materials, whether it is wool, or fruits, or wood, or meat. Such activities are already quite well-established in the Valley; they need energetic promotion, but that requires a sympathetic government in the state, not an end to special status, nor any abrogation of restrictions on land purchase by outsiders."
Then the geography and the natural resources available, mainly water and agricultural land, in the region restricts the human population and the industries it can support.
The timing and the manner Article 370 and 35A was abrogated also leaves doubts about the stated intentions of the government.
Looking at the timing; it’s not hard to see that it was chosen to sabotage the local economy.
July-August-September is the boom period for the local economy and Kashmiri’s businesses.
It’s a period when local and international tourists flock the valley and Amarnath yatra takes place. These two activities alone makes a significant portion of the local GDP.
Then there was Bakra-Eid festival round the corner. This is another occasion that invigorates the local and rural economy. People buy new cloths, groceries, and most importantly goats, sheep or cattle, that are sacrificed, and a third of the meat is distributed among the poor. This is a time of the year when local sheep herders make their money that they use during the year, which in many cases, is their sole income.
Aug-September is also a period when apple harvesting takes place. Apple is another big chunk of the local economy that supports rural population of Kashmir, and employs locals and seasonal labours from outside the province. With the valley in a lockdown state, one wonders if an efficient and timely harvesting and transportation will be feasible.
There is no doubt that a man made severe recession in the local economy lies ahead, and it may take years to bring the situation back to normal. The conditions, created by others, may force the locals to sell their land at throw away prices, to the outsiders waiting with cash in hand. Is that the vision?
A valid question will be, was it a plan to destroy the local economy - to facilitate the outsiders to move in and take over? Or, was it a repeat of the misadventures BJP is known to indulge in – the likes of ‘note bandi’?
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