NEW YORK, Aug. 31 (Xinhua) -- The United States needs a "miracle" to avoid an economic recession, a renowned U.S. economist has said.
In an interview with U.S. business news channel CNBC on Monday, Stephen Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute of Global Affairs, said persistent inflation will lead to a pullback in consumer spending, which will in turn "reverberate through the broader economy and create pain in the labor market."
"We're going to have to have a cumulative drop in the economy (GDP) somewhere of around 1.5 percent to 2 percent. And, the unemployment rate is going to have to go up by 1 to 2 percentage points in a minimum," the former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia told CNBC.
Data released by the U.S. Commerce Department showed that the U.S. economy shrank at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the second quarter of 2022, following a first-quarter decline of 1.6 percent.
According to CNBC, the negative economic growth seen in the first half of the year "may be a foreshock to a much deeper downturn that could last into 2024."
